Most banks built transaction-processing systems in the past rather than the type of management information systems necessary to reach informed conclusions on credit-loss characteristics and default and loss rates. Few credit default databases went much beyond location, industrial classification and, in some instances, internal credit rating. If only the world were so simple.
All banks should maintain their own historic database for issuer failures, loan defaults and credit losses from other exposures that allowed for the data to be looked at in the following ways:
By issuer. Industrial classification, credit ratings, net debt–equity ratios, size in terms of sales and total assets, operating cashflows to debt servicing costs, breakdown of assets and liabilities by currency, breakdown of debt by term, floating–fixed, currency.
By exposure. Loan/facility/derivative etc. Size of exposure, term, floating–fixed, optionality (e.g. prepayment, repayable on demand), security (type, value), guarantees etc.
We would also want to have access to external macro-level data such as GDP growth, ca- pacity utilization rates, interest rates, inflation, current account and fiscal positions and to industry-specific data such as property and other asset prices, auto sales, housing starts and retail sales. The shopping list of requirements could go on and on.
The intellectual tools derived from mathematical group theory to analyze such information existed 30 years ago. The technology existed at the time to store much of the data collected but the computing power to analyze and use this data did not then exist. Because it could not be used at many banks it was simply overwritten or thrown away. These basic problems with data have been compounded by the adverse effects of bank acquisitions and mergers.
This is perhaps understandable. There were costs associated with storing the data and it required a leap of vision to see that in 20 or 30 years’ time that data could be used to great effect and would be extremely valuable. Newton could truthfully say “If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.” Today people trying to work on credit risk management problems have to make do with what mere mortals have left behind.